Stock indices worldwide
are diverging from each other, with notable divergences opening
up between different American markets.
While In a relatively rare event,
the Dow Jones Industrials did not end the Mercury Retrograde period
back within a per cent of where prices were when the astrological
phenomenon started in late May.
I should point out that Kaye Shinker’s
research on the Mercury Rx effect applies only to the DJI itself
and not other stock indices.
However, because the Dow usually acts as a benchmark index, in terms
of price levels and trend direction, it’s not unreasonable
to extrapolate the effect to other indices.
Most of the time.
But this has been a very unusual time
because the effect of other astrological aspects has made the markets
extraordinarily difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy.
The DJI, for example, closed out last
week within 0.9% of its March Low. However, the S&P 500 is 3.5%
above its Low and the Nasdaq Composite is still almost 11% off its
Low.
Even more oddly, the Midcap index
and the Russell 2000 have displayed unusual resilience – with
the latter index sitting 12.7% above its March Low.
I say oddly because in a true Bear
market, the strength usually lies with the very big Blue Chips which
have the resources to ride out an economic downturn. Investors normally
desert midcap and smallcap stocks.
Strength in the smallcaps against
relative weakness in the Blue Chips is something we normally expect
to see during Bull runs.
The FTSE, the ASX 200 and the DAX have all held well above their
March Lows, while Tokyo’s Nikkei index has managed to hold
the line at a very high level.
However, the Indian stock market and
the two main Chinese indices, Shanghai and the Hang Seng, display
considerable weakness.
Mercury has now resumed Direct motion,
from a geocentric perspective, but our worldwide picture remains
contradictory as we approach a week in which we experience another
major astrological aspect – Uranus turning Retrograde, a condition
with a very
high probability of coinciding closely with a major market turn.
The Uranus Rx station is taking place
in the middle of a series of high-energy astrological impacts stretching
out over several weeks.
There are no major aspects involving
the planet of restriction, Saturn, over the next couple of weeks
– but, Mars will change signs to Virgo on July 2 and will
move to an exact conjunction with Saturn on July 11.
The problem in trying to determine
how all of this is likely to play out in the stock markets is whether
the cosmic cluster breaks down into a series of different effects
which whipsaw the markets up and down … or if the energy patterns
coalesce to provide
significant and reliable turning points at roughly the midpoint
of the patterns.
The decline in the DJI – which
is not being reflected in some of the other Wall Street indices
– confounds accurate analysis even further.
For one thing, we now have another
confirmed Hindenberg Omen on the clock, pointing to a significantly-increased
possibility of a stock market crash within the next four months.
Against that signal, we have some
technical indicators for the DJI now at their lowest levels since
the bottom of the Bear in the early 2000s – and, on top of
that, price action from various indices indicating a high probability
of a confirmed, four-year-cycle bottom now in place.
In short, we are in probably the most
difficult trading conditions since the late 1980s or 90s.
In the coming week, we should see
the start of a bounce higher from fairly deeply oversold conditions
in key stock indices. The question is whether it is simply a bounce,
or whether it signals the start of a directional movement.
We also need to try to make some sense
of the continuing non-confirmation from the Dow Jones Transports,
which are firmly holding to an uptrend line in spite of the difficult
economic conditions outlined last week by one of the key component
companies, FedEx.
The performance of the Transports
flies in the face of what, on the surface, seems to be commonsense.
Tight credit, soaring oil prices and continuing speculation of possible
military conflict with Iran, ought to have caused the Transports
to tumble severely –
especially when popular opinion is so gloomy about the overall health
of the American economy.
One of the indices … the Industrials
or the Transports … is wrong. The reappearance of a confirmed
Hindenberg Omen suggests it is the Transports.
And yet, it is difficult to believe
investors could be holding the Transports, the Midcaps and the Russell
2000 at such high levels if everything is on the verge of going
to Hell in a handbasket.
UNITED STATES
Dow Jones Transports [click
to view the charts and download the entire Adobe PDF file]
Given the warnings from FedEx, the behaviour of the Transports last
week was really quite remarkable.....(read more...CLICK
HERE to download
the full version of this report with all technical charts and further
comments. (PDF format)
The World At Large is delivered in advance to Astrological
Investing Premium Member subscribers. Randall Ashbourne
is a former journalist and political strategist residing in Australia.
*QHT Technical Charts created using Quick
Harmonic Trader Software, by P.A.S. Astro-Soft, Inc. makers
of Galactic Investor Astrology software.
***
Please
help support our site by using our bookshop for all your Amazon.com
shopping needs!
All of the written material
and graphics are copyrighted by AstrologicalInvesting.com and Randall
Ashbourne. Unless otherwise noted, written material and graphics
may not be reproduced without written permission. This includes
but is not limited to any current articles or archives on Astrological
Investing's web site on financial astrology, how to start an investment
club, technical analysis, business astrology, or stock market investing
©2007, 2008 |
